External Validation of the OAC3-PAD Bleeding Score in a Nationwide Population of Patients Undergoing Invasive Treatment for Peripheral Arterial Disease.

OBJECTIVE: The OAC3-PAD score was developed to predict bleeding risk in patients with lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (PAD), but its performance in concomitant international cohorts is largely unknown. This study aimed to validate the OAC3-PAD score in an unselected nationwide population of patients undergoing invasive treatment for symptomatic PAD. METHODS: This was a nationwide cohort study including all patients who underwent a first revascularisation procedure or major amputation for symptomatic PAD in Denmark from 2000 - 2021. The study population was stratified based on OAC3-PAD score, and the one year risk of major bleeding was assessed, accounting for the competing risk of death. The score performance was evaluated using calibration plots, C statistic, Brier score, and the index of prediction accuracy (IPA). RESULTS: A total of 52 016 patients were included (mean age 71 years, 43.8% female). The one year risk of major bleeding increased with higher OAC3-PAD score, ranging from 1.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4 - 1.8%) to 2.3% (95% CI 2.0 - 2.5%), 3.5% (95% CI 3.2 - 3.8%), and 5.2% (95% CI 4.8 - 5.6%) for patients with low, low moderate, moderate high, and high score, respectively. Using patients with low risk as reference, the OAC3-PAD score effectively categorised patients, demonstrating statistically significant differences in bleeding risk across strata. However, the score showed modest discriminative performance, with a C statistic of 65% (95% CI 63 - 66%) and a Brier score of 2.6% (95% CI 2.5 - 2.7%). Nevertheless, it performed significantly better than the null model, as indicated by an IPA of 3.1%. CONCLUSION: Among patients who underwent invasive treatment for symptomatic PAD in routine care, the OAC3-PAD score was associated with greater risk of major bleeding with increasing score level. However, its discriminatory ability was modest, and the clinical utility remains to be determined.

Antiplatelet Therapy in Patients With Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Without Symptomatic Atherosclerotic Disease.

Importance: Patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm have a high risk of ischemic events associated with concomitant atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and current clinical practice guidelines recommend antiplatelet therapy to mitigate this risk. However, in patients with aneurysms without symptomatic atherosclerosis, the benefit of antiplatelet therapy has been sparsely investigated. Objective: To estimate the effect of antiplatelets on the risk of ischemic events and bleeding in individuals with abdominal aneurysms with no symptomatic atherosclerotic vascular disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: A comparative effectiveness research study using a target trial emulation framework was performed. Population-based, cross-linked observational data from Danish national health registries containing comprehensive, individual-level information on all Danish citizens were used to evaluate patients who were antiplatelet-naive and diagnosed with abdominal aortic aneurysms, with no record of symptomatic atherosclerotic vascular disease, from January 1, 2010, through August 21, 2021. Exposure: Prescription filled for aspirin or clopidogrel. Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk of ischemic events (myocardial infarction and/or ischemic stroke) and risk of major bleeding. For target trial emulation, trials were emulated as sequential, contingent on patient eligibility at the time of inclusion, and were evaluated by means of pooled logistic regression models to estimate the intention-to-treat and as-treated effects, expressed as hazard ratio (HR) and event-free survival. Results: A total of 6344 patients (65.2% men; age, 72 [IQR, 64-78] years) provided 131 047 trial cases; 3363 of these cases involved initiation of antiplatelet therapy and 127 684 did not. A total of 182 ischemic events occurred among initiators and 5602 ischemic events occurred among noninitiators, corresponding to an intention-to-treat HR of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.73-1.17) and an estimated absolute event-free survival difference of -0.6% (95% CI, -1.7% to 0.5%). After censoring nonadherent person-time, the treatment HR was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.68-1.20), with similar risk difference. For bleeding, the intention-to-treat HR was 1.26 (95% CI, 0.97-1.58) and the event-free survival difference was 1.0%. The treatment HR was 1.21 (95% CI, 0.82-1.72); the risk difference was similar. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, no evidence of effectiveness of antiplatelet therapy to lower the risk of ischemic events and a trend toward higher bleeding risk was noted. The observed differences between the treatment groups were minimal, suggesting limited clinical relevance of antiplatelet treatment.

Epidemiological Trends and Projections of Incidence, Prevalence, and Disease Related Mortality Associated With Peripheral Arterial Disease: Observations Using Nationwide Danish Data.

OBJECTIVE: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) trends remain unclear because contemporary data are sparse and conflicting. This nationwide cohort study quantified changes in PAD incidence, prevalence, and all cause mortality, and projected prevalence development through to 2040. METHODS: Population based registries covering the entire Danish population aged ≥ 40 years from 2000 to 2018 were linked to assess trends in PAD incidence, prevalence, and all cause mortality, overall and by sex and age groups. Based on observed trends in incidence and mortality, and estimated future annual age distribution and population mortality, the PAD prevalence through to 2040 was projected. RESULTS: The Danish population aged 40 - 99 years in 2000 - 2018 included 4 811 281 individuals, among whom 145 870 incident PAD diagnoses were identified. The age and sex standardised PAD incidence decreased from 2.26 per 1 000 person years in 2000 to 1.65 in 2018 (incidence RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.72 - 0.77). The incidence was approximately 20% higher in men than women but declined similarly over time. Concurrently, PAD prevalence in the Danish adult population increased from 1.3% to 1.6% (prevalence ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.26 - 1.30). Among patients aged ≥ 80 years, the prevalence reached 5.7% in women and 7.9% in men. The age and sex standardised annual mortality among patients with PAD decreased from 9.8% in 2000 to 7.2% in 2018 (mortality ratio 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 - 0.78). Projections of PAD prevalence demonstrated that the rising PAD prevalence will continue until around 2030, followed by a decline towards 2040. Among individuals aged ≥ 80 years, the prevalence was projected to plateau at 8.9% for men and 6.2% for women before declining. CONCLUSION: Within an unselected nationwide population, the incidence and all cause mortality of PAD have declined over the last two decades. Concurrently, prevalence increased and is projected to increase further over the coming decade, emphasising the growing burden of this common atherosclerotic disease in ageing populations.

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair in Patients with Concomitant Cancer: A Literature Review.

OBJECTIVES: Abdominal aortic aneurysmal (AAA) repair in patients with concomitant cancer is controversial due to increased comorbidity and reduced life expectancy in this specific patient group. This literature review aims to investigate the evidence supporting one treatment modality over another (endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) or open repair (OR)), as well as treatment strategy (staged AAA-, cancer first or simultaneous procedures) in patients with AAA and concomitant cancer. METHODS: Literature review, including studies published from 2000 to 2021 on surgical treatment in patients with AAA and concomitant cancer and related outcomes (30-day morbidity/complications as well as 30-day and 3-year mortality). RESULTS: 24 studies comprising 560 patients undergoing surgical treatment of AAA and concomitant cancer were included. Of these, 220 cases were treated with EVAR and 340 with OR. Simultaneous procedures were performed in 190 cases, 370 received staged procedures. The 30-day mortality for EVAR versus OR was 1% and 8%, corresponding to a relative risk (RR) of 0.11 (95% CI: 0.03-0.46, p = 0.002). No difference in mortality was observed between staged versus simultaneous procedure nor between AAA-first versus cancer-first strategy, RR 0.59 (95% CI: 0.29-1.1, p = 0.13) and 0.88 (95% CI 0.34-2.31, p = 0.80), respectively. Overall, 3-year mortality was 21% for EVAR and 39% for OR from 2000-2021, while the mortality up to 3 years after EVAR within recent years (2015-2021) was 16%. CONCLUSION: This review supports EVAR treatment as first choice if suitable. No consensus was established on treating either the aneurysm or the cancer first or simultaneously. Long-term mortality after EVAR was comparable to non-cancer patients within recent years.

Stroke and Myocardial Infarction in Patients with Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm and New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and risk of stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysmal (AAA) disease. METHODS: Observational crossover study using Danish nationwide data, including patients with AAA and incident AF between 1997 and 2018. We estimated the 1-year risk of stroke and MI and the within-individual odds ratios (ORs) of ischemic events before and after an AF diagnosis, stratified by year of AF diagnosis (1997-2010 and 2011-2018), and supplemented with analyses on changes in use of antithrombotic therapy. RESULTS: A total of 3,035 AAA patients were included: 1,040 diagnosed during 1997 to 2010, and 1,995 during 2011 to 2018 (22.2% females, median age 78 years; median CHA2DS2-VASc score 4; interquartile range: 3-5). One-year risk of ischemic events after AF was 5.9% (confidence interval [CI] 95%: 4.6-7.5%) and 4.5% (CI 95%: 3.7-5.5%) for stroke and 5.4% (CI 95%: 4.2-6.9%) and 4.0% (CI 95%: 3.2-4.9%) for MI during 1997 to 2010 and 2011 to 2018, respectively. The OR of ischemic stroke before and after incident AF was 2.8 (CI 95%: 1.6-5.2) during 1997 to 2010; and 2.4 (CI 95%: 1.5 to 3.9) during 2011 to 2018, and 3.5 (CI 95%: 1.7-7.5) and 1.5 (CI 95%: 0.9-2.4) for MI. One-year proportion of prescription claims for oral anticoagulants after AF changed from 66.1% in 1997 to 2010 to 82.6% in 2011 to 2018, while antiplatelet prescription claims changed from 80.8 to 60.9%. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular prognosis has improved in patients with prevalent AAA disease and new-onset AF in concordance with optimization of antithrombotic therapy over time. A diagnosis of AF conferred residual risk of stroke and MI.

Temporal trends in abdominal aortic aneurysmal disease: a nationwide cohort study on cardiovascular morbidity and medical cardioprotective therapy.

AIMS: Abdominal aortic aneurysmal disease is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and death, which potentially can be reduced with cardioprotective medical therapy. The aim of this study was to observe temporal trends in prevalence and incidence of cardiovascular comorbidity as well as use of medical cardioprotective treatment in patients diagnosed with abdominal aortic aneurysmal disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a population-based cohort study based on data from national health registries, including all patients diagnosed with abdominal aortic aneurysms between 1998 and 2018. Data were stratified into four time periods (1999-2003, 2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2018) to illustrate trends over time. Outcome measures were (i) cardiovascular comorbidity and medical cardioprotective therapy at time of diagnosis, (ii) new admissions for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and (iii) all-cause mortality after 2-year follow-up. The study cohort included 33 296 individuals. Mean age was 74 years. Prevalence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular comorbidity at diagnosis decreased from 41.5 to 32.6%. Use of statins increased from 17.9 to 66.9%, antiplatelets from 45.6 to 63.3%, and combined therapy with both antiplatelets and statins from 11.3 to 44.8%, and from 12.1 to 50.7% when anticoagulant therapy was included. Developments in medication use plateaued after 2013. Prevalence and incidence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease decreased through all four time periods. The same applied to all-cause mortality, which decreased from 24.3 to 12.4 deaths (per 100 person-years). CONCLUSION: In patients diagnosed with abdominal aortic aneurysm, cardiovascular comorbidity at diagnosis, risk of future cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality is decreasing. Nevertheless, cardiovascular burden and mortality rates remain substantial, and medical cardioprotective therapy can be further improved.

Abdominal Closure and the Risk of Incisional Hernia in Aneurysm Surgery - A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) have a high prevalence of incisional hernia following open repair. The choice of incision and closure technique has a significant impact on this post-operative complication. Multiple techniques exist, as well as various comparative analyses, but clinical consensus is lacking. The objective was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of AAA laparotomy and closure technique and the risk of incisional hernia development. METHODS: The systematic review was performed according to the PRISMA guidelines. A literature search of all original research published until January 2019 was made. Outcome measures were surgical approach, closure technique, hernia rates, length of follow up, and method of hernia recognition. Groups were divided according to method of abdominal incision and closure technique. Differences in outcome between closure techniques were expressed as risk ratios with 95% confidence interval (CI) using a random effects model. RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included with a cumulative cohort of between 388 and 3 399 patients compared in each group. Abdominal closure with a suture to wound length ratio of more than 4:1 compared with less than 4:1, RR 0.42 (95% CI 0.27-0.65), and abdominal closure with mesh compared with without mesh augmentation, RR 0.24 (95% CI 0.10-0.60) reduced the risk of incisional hernia. There were no significant differences in incisional hernia rate between transverse abdominal incision vs. vertical midline incision, RR 0.57 (95% CI 0.31-1.06) and between midline transperitoneal vs. all retroperitoneal incisions, RR 1.19 (95% CI 0.54-2.61). CONCLUSION: Choice of abdominal closure technique after aneurysm surgery impacts the risk of developing incisional hernia. The use of a supportive mesh significantly reduces the risk of incisional hernia in vertical midline incisions. The same is true if a suture to wound ratio of more than 4:1 is used.